If you’ve been following my writing for some time, you know that I read, a lot. I’ve spent the past few months, like everyone else, digesting the whirlwind of news, change, and chaos around us. On one side, I’m just trying to adjust the [choose your own adventure: new/temporary/semi-permanent] ‘norm’ and just hang in there. However, the creative side of me got to thinking – this also may be one of the most transformative periods that I’ll ever live through and that got my mind racing. How many times will you live in a period where so much of the world around you is being redefined, re-imagined, and forced to transform or evolve? The world is currently undergoing a transformative period of forced experimentation coupled with the removal of all prior barriers to accelerated adoption of technologies/policies/behaviors that otherwise would never be dreamt of or would’ve taken years to decades to occur.
What’s going now is perfectly encapsulated by, Vladmir Ilyich Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen”
But don’t take it from me, people/organizations from all over the world have spoken about how much COVID-19 will dramatically change things.
McKinsey: For millennials and members of Generation Z—those born between 1980 and 2012—this crisis represents the biggest disruption they have faced. Their attitudes may be changed profoundly and in ways that are hard to predict. The tourism, travel, and hospitality sectors may see their businesses subject to long-term changes in business and individual travel preferences. Concern over the possibility of other “black swan” events could change how consumers approach financial security—saving more and spending less. Individuals, communities, businesses, and governments alike are all learning new ways to connect: almost everyone knows a story of the grandparent who finally learned to Zoom, Skype, or FaceTime.
Morgan Housel: But I think the amount of surprise we’ve all felt in the last month means this is already a life-defining event. The consequences will be different, but I believe more than ever that Covid-19 will end up similar to the Great Depression, World War II, and September 11th in its ability to reshape the world, driven by a generation that will go on to view everything else in life through the lens of their experience. Too many critical assumptions of the future have already been upended for it to be any different.
Ben Evans: Some things were very clearly already happening and will now happen faster, possibly much faster, and some things that we’re forced to try now might not have happened without this. But, not all of this adoption will stick once we do get back to normal. We’ll try everything, because we’re forced to, but not all of it will work. So, which is which?
Obviously, I wish it was under better circumstances and wish we were able to prevent the loss of human life but I think that now, more than ever, we should all be thinking about the future we want to build or exist in. How do we create and live in a world where it doesn’t take a disaster like this to redefine life/culture/business/society?
What I’ve attempted to do in this piece is two things.
*Links to jump directly to them
As I got the journey started, I honed in on a few guiding questions. I’d like to propose the same to you as you go through the piece. Shoot me your thoughts!
Fair warning: [Published 5/9/20]. Lots of charts, stats, links. Sources are predominately from March and April 2020, so some may be dated. Links to all sources should be included and updated.
As I collected stats, charts, takes, and stories, it becoming glaringly apparent that certain industries/topics were a lot more prevalent and impacted than others. This is not meant to be exhaustive but the main categories I segmented the piece into were the following areas (in no particular order):
[6/18/20 Update] Instead of going through a list of trends saying ‘I buy this’ or ‘I don’t buy this’ and talking about commonly talked about changes from COVID-19, I decided to make a few predictions on various industries, technologies, or trends that may take off on the other side of COVID-19, either having been accelerated by the onset of the pandemic or as a result of it happening. I tried to focus on trends that were less commonly talked about – so less “WFH/telehealth/online education/food delivery is here to stay”, “suburbs > cities”, “shared mobility is the future” takes. Hope you find them interesting! Let me know if you agree or disagree.
My Predictions:
I wanted to shout out some of the incredible responses I got from readers. Sharing highlights of some of the best below.
Sean T., San Francisco, CA
“Media’s ability to spin the narrative and influence viewer’s perspective has been at an all-time high. Turn on Fox, nothing is wrong. Turn on CNN, we all have 45 days to live. Very interesting to see how something that is impacting the entire world can be portrayed so differently depending on the TV channel you flip on. Also really brings into question what news sources you can trust during a time like this and what facts are real”
“People are willing to gamble on literally anything. When sports come back I think gambling will be at an all-time high”
“Never realized people’s need to be constantly stimulated and entertained; I feel like people have really struggled with keeping themselves entertained. Not sure if this a positive or negative, but has been interesting to see how people are handling this quarantine and how they fill their days”
“While ‘deglobalization’ may not be the right word, I think the US government is going to take a long and hard look at how dependent we are on China and how to fix that. The fact we relied almost entirely on China for the incremental PPE we needed was really alarming, and if relations were to go south there and something like this happens again, we would be in for a world of hurt”
“WFH is going to much more widely accepted. We talked about this, but Friday WFH policy will be much more prevalent. I do wonder though what effects this on like the real estate market, “morning essentials” (i.e., Starbucks) and whatnot”
Matt H., Chicago, IL
“Film: The entertainment industry is shattered at the moment. All production (Film/TV) has come to a complete halt for the last 2+ months. The way we film & produce movies will become streamlined and more efficient. Smaller crews (SWAT-like teams) will be necessary.”
“Film: Streaming services have thrown a hard-hitting dagger (yet again) into old Hollywood. More and more individuals are consuming their video content via Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime… Directors/Actors are going to sign streaming deals instead of major studio deals i.e. their movies will go directly to streaming instead of theaters.”
“Society: People will have an increasingly negative outlook towards media & news outlets. This pandemic has exacerbated & made it transparent the negligence we have seen from our leaders.”
“Education: Nobody should be attending college in the fall. There is no reason to be spending $30k-$60k on attending Zoom meetings. New forms of education will emerge & parents will take the leap into homeschooling. Individuals will start to realize that they might not need to make a 4-year investment in college when they could easily get a similar education at home using the internet.”
Anonymous, Los Angeles, CA
“People/colleagues/employees without kids have a huge advantage during the lockdown in terms of getting work done. It’s literally night and day. For one, they don’t have to deal with setting up zoom calls for their kids’ classes, online homework, lunch meals, etc. Second, those without kids are literally working 15 hour days because they have nothing else to do. Just an observation but I’ve been surprised how many people are logged in and active on their Bloomberg terminals on Saturday or Sunday nights. I have talked to many investment professionals across the spectrum and without fail everyone that’s single or kid-less is working nonstop. You do have to wonder if this will create a hiring advantage for younger employees or people without kids.”
“Actually think that when we get past this and can go out of the house with ease (maybe it takes 12 months), people will actually realize that insourcing everything in your life is really hard. For people with the financial means that have had to drop their nanny, cleaning lady, etc because of covid (not wanting outside people in their house) you actually realize how much work it is when you have to clean the house on your own, etc. even cooking every meal for 80 straight days makes you realize that outsourcing food prep (restaurants) has tremendous value. And it’s not just ordering for delivery. You still have massive clean up time even when u order delivery. My wife and I spend 5 hours a day in the kitchen with clean dishes and clean-up, groceries, cutting vegetables, etc. that’s why, as weird as it sounds, I think people will realize how much they appreciate the restaurant experience beyond just the fact that the food is good and you get out the house. The alternative, cooking every meal, makes you realize that insourcing sucks. Look don’t get me wrong, restaurants will take a long time to come back, but Mark my words, when we do get past this, restaurants will have a multi year renaissance. Just my take. I could be biased by the fact that we are feeding 5 people for every meal in my house, but anecdotally, I think others agree”
Fadi S. Chicago, IL
Redefinition of experiences: The trend of experiencing our surroundings – proliferated by influencer culture, and likely bolstered by our own desire to “prove” that we’ve “experienced it”– is evolving; specifically the definition of “experience”. Becoming more restricted to the confounds of our homes has made us reaffirm the simple idea of a home that made us fall in love with the concept in the first place. For example, cooking at home more and sharing that and our skill sets with cooking with friends has become a staple in how we show “experience”. Part of it is due to inaccess to restaurants, but I feel part of it is also each of us trying to prove that we can function in even simple ways. Another example – creating a sense of experience and connection through virtual communications instead of strictly in person. The definition of dating fits perfect here since the stories of individuals going on virtual dates that haven’t totally bombed has become more common. Coupled with the fact that we work far too much in the States, maybe this will be a great balance and outlet for someone that considers themselves a workaholic and wants to create connections in a way that doesn’t demand that they follow the traditional dating mold. Overall, how we capture the essence of “experience” will continue to evolve as each of us come to grips with what we’re comfortable doing and some not wanting to fully give up the sense of peace they’ve attained through the absence of social pressures.
Social media for Discourse: We’re becoming more socially conscious at a macro scale, and using social media to more effectively push local agendas to the center stage. Unfortunately, I think part of this is because we’re all contained and we’re less distracted. I imagine once options for entertainment open up again, we’ll swing back to highlighting what’s top of mind via the news outlets along with our fire brunch, instead of using social media to spur meaningful dialogue.
Copy link